Smoking has been a killer for decades, and despite all the warnings and campaigns, it’s still causing havoc globally. Between 1990 and 2021, smoking led to over 175 million deaths. That’s millions of people whose lives were cut short because of cigarettes. And while smoking rates have dropped, it’s not happening fast enough.

A new study looked at what could happen if we keep up the current pace of reducing smoking — and what could happen if countries really get serious about kicking smoking to the curb by 2050. Here’s the deal.

Scenario 1: Keep Doing What We’re Doing (Reference Scenario)

If we continue on the same path, the number of people smoking will go down, but slowly. Smoking rates are expected to drop by 26% for men and 30% for women by 2050. But even with this decline, smoking will still cause 29 billion years of life lost for men and 22 billion for women. That’s a massive hit to public health.

The good news? Life expectancy will still go up. In 2022, the average life expectancy at birth was around 73.6 years. By 2050, that number could rise to about 78.3 years. But it could be so much better…

Scenario 2: A Smoke-Free World by 2023 (Elimination-2023 Scenario)

Imagine if we could snap our fingers and make smoking disappear today. In this dream scenario, the study shows we’d save 2 billion years of life by 2050. Life expectancy would jump to 77.6 years for men and 81 years for women. That’s a huge boost! Basically, we’d be living longer, healthier lives without the burden of smoking-related diseases dragging us down.

Scenario 3: Phasing Out Smoking by 2050 (Elimination-2050 Scenario)

Now, if we take a more realistic approach and aim to reduce smoking to just 5% of the population by 2050, we still come out ahead. This slow-but-steady approach would avoid 735 million years of life lost for men and 141 million for women. Life expectancy would also increase, but not as much as the immediate elimination scenario. By 2050, men could live to around 77.1 years, and women to 80.8 years.

What’s the Takeaway?

If we stick with what we’re doing now, smoking rates will keep dropping, and people will live longer. But if countries get serious about cutting smoking even faster, we could save billions of years of life (literally). It’s not just about quitting smoking today; it’s about the long-term health impact on future generations.

So, what needs to happen? Countries need to step up their tobacco control policies. This means higher taxes on cigarettes, more smoking bans, better access to quitting programs — basically, pulling out all the stops. The study shows we can make a huge difference by pushing for a world where smoking isn’t the norm.

Bottom line: If we want a healthier future, we need to quit smoking, and we need to do it fast.

GBD 2021 Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators. Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Public Health. 2024 Oct;9(10):e729-e744. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00166-X. PMID: 39366729; PMCID: PMC11447278.